Key Notes

Key Notes:

The recent MVRV death cross hints at a possible 50% downturn, mirroring past trends.With a 75% probability, a DOGE ETF approval in 2025 could fuel massive demand.A bullish breakout above $0.50 could propel DOGE toward the $1.80-$5.80 range.

Bitcoin BTC $96 656 24h volatility: 1.2% Market cap: $1.92 T Vol. 24h: $18.59 B is down at $96,300, resulting in a massive pullback in the meme coins. The meme coin’s market capitalization is down to $70.37 billion, with Dogecoin DOGE $0.25 24h volatility: 4.1% Market cap: $36.59 B Vol. 24h: $1.02 B price falling 3% in the past 24 hours.

While sustaining the recently re-established dominance above the $0.25 psychological mark, Dogecoin is hanging by a thread. With bulls nearing a crossroads near the 200-day EMA line, will the broader market pullback drop Dogecoin prices to a new low in 2025? Let’s find out.

In the daily chart, Dogecoin price action reveals a quick bullish recovery over the last week, sustaining dominance above the $0.24 support level. Dogecoin recovered 6.7% last week.

Photo: TradingView

However, the bullish resurgence failed to surpass the dynamic resistance line of the 20-day EMA. With a higher price rejection and a morning star pattern over the weekend, Dogecoin is now trading at $0.2630.

DOGE creates another Doji candle with a minor pullback of 1.01%. Furthermore, Dogecoin price struggles to balance above the 200-day EMA line.

As the short-term price movement reveals a crossroad for Dogecoin, the prevailing downfall continues to create a lower-high trend. Despite this, the momentum indicator MACD gives a positive sign.

With the recent bullish crossover and a rise of positive histograms, the MACD indicator hints at a bullish recovery. However, the dynamic lines are on the verge of giving a bearish crossover between the 50- and 100-day EMA lines.

As the Dogecoin price action hints at a double-edged position, a recent tweet from Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, warns of a sharp pullback. Highlighting the recent death cross between the MVRV ratio and the 200-day EMA line, Ali Martinez expects the Dogecoin price to fall.

#Dogecoin $DOGE just saw a death cross between the MVRV Ratio and its 200-day MA. The last two times this happened, prices dropped 26% and 44%. pic.twitter.com/G5CslTGuMJ

— Ali (@ali_charts) February 17, 2025

As per historical trends, the previous two death crosses – in July 2023 and June 2024 – resulted in a pullback of 26% and 44%, respectively. With the increasing intensity of these pullbacks, the recent death cross could lead to a downfall of 50% or more.

Despite the recent death cross between the MVRV ratio and Dogecoin prices, Ali Martinez also highlights a potential bullish reversal in the meme coin. Currently, in the weekly chart, the Dogecoin price action reveals a parallel channel at play.

If #Dogecoin $DOGE is following a parallel channel, a breakout above $0.58 could set the stage for a move toward $1.80 or even $5.80!

Go to @SimpleFXcom, claim your $5,000 bonus via my link https://t.co/GLjkpQvNJr, and get some before it’s too late. pic.twitter.com/eekHepmS5W

— Ali (@ali_charts) February 16, 2025

Considering Dogecoin breaks above $0.50, the bullish recovery could scale to new heights. From the bullish perspective, the optimistic targets extend above the $1 psychological milestone, reaching between $1.80 and $5.80.

Photo: Polymarket

While these bullish numbers may seem unrealistic, the increasing chances of a DOGE ETF in the US market could drive the demand for the biggest meme coin. Currently, as per data from PolyMarket, users anticipate a 75% chance of a DOGE ETF getting approved in 2025.

As Dogecoin hangs near the 200-day EMA line after the recent morning star pattern, a pullback to $0.2465 is highly possible. However, if the bulls manage to avoid a closing price below the 200-day EMA line, this bullish continuation could test the overhead supply ceiling at the $0.30 psychological mark.

Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.

Vishal, a Bachelor of Science graduate, began his journey in the crypto space during the 2021 bull run and has since navigated the subsequent market winter. With a strong technical background, he is dedicated to delivering insightful articles rich in technical details, empowering readers to make well-informed decisions.

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